UK economic growth slows to 0.1% in November – business live |  Business

UK economic growth slows to 0.1% in November – business live | Business

UK economic growth slows to 0.1% in November – business live |  Business

GDP: UK economy grew 0.1% in November

Breaking: Britain’s economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP rose 0.1% in November, a slowdown from the 0.5% growth recorded in October.

But “looking at the bigger picture”, adds the ONS, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

Growth at telecommunications and computer programming companies helped the UK economy to expand, just 0.1%, in November, says ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan.

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Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games, he explains, with England and Wales both playing in Qatar.

“,”elementId”:”923e4098-aadf-44c9-b2dc-298ab3049bdb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But this was “partially offset” by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the pharmaceutical industry (where output can be erratic).

“,”elementId”:”c6e369fb-53b3-4073-90fc-a367ac38fb76″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Strikes also hit the transport and postal sectors, Morgan says, adding:

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“Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank – mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

\n

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Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Darren Morgan said: (1/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ivYR1sEsgU

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793499484229633″,”id”:”1613793499484229633″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”8e687054-d66f-485b-8331-1eb610692a25″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Darren Morgan continued: (2/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ghX6AbpIYW

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793731680796672″,”id”:”1613793731680796672″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”85b7c301-dab2-49e1-997b-5aebdbfb06ec”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Darren Morgan also said: (3/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/g9dLabtuw8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793934848688129″,”id”:”1613793934848688129″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”fc3f228e-af1c-4dae-b511-230aa47ace39″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1673594172000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.16 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1673594547000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.22 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1673594547000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.22 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.22″,”title”:”ONS: The economy grew a little in November, but strikes hit economy”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 13 Jan 2023 02.34 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 13 Jan 2023 01.39 EST”},{“id”:”63c104a18f085fda3e65dd27″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says:

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“We have a clear plan to halve inflation this year – an insidious hidden tax which has led to hikes in interest rates and mortgage costs, holding back growth here and around the world.

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“To support families through this tough patch, we will provide an average of £3,500 support for every household over this year and next – but the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again.”

\n

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The UK’s services sector grew by 0.2% during November, with the men’s World Cup in Qatar providing a boost to pubs and bars, as supporters gathered to watch games.

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But manufacturing continued to struggle, with its output falling by 0.5%.

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The construction sector stagnated.

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GDP grew 0.1% in November with

▪️ services up 0.2%
▪️ manufacturing down 0.5%
▪️ construction flat (0.0%)

➡️ https://t.co/TbV9f82F6z pic.twitter.com/fqg8kNF4c6

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793281237815296″,”id”:”1613793281237815296″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”6635015f-f5ad-4ba0-b566-664677962312″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s the details of how the UK economy performed in November, from the Office for National Statistics:

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  • The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022, after growth of 0.7% (revised up from a growth 0.6% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contributions came from administrative and support service activities and information and communication.

  • \n

  • Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% (revised up from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution to growth came from food and beverage service activities in a month where the FIFA World Cup started.

  • \n

  • Production output decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a fall of 0.1% (revised down from flat in our previous publication) in October 2022; manufacturing was the main driver of negative production growth in November 2022, partially offset by a positive contribution from mining and quarrying.

  • \n

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after growth of 0.4% (revised down from growth of 0.8% in our previous publication) in October 2022.

  • \n

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Breaking: the UK economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

“,”elementId”:”3479dba7-648a-4ffa-bf67-dbc76a2fc3a8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP rose by 0.1% in November, a slowdown on the 0.5% growth recorded in October.

“,”elementId”:”415016a0-c80b-4f15-a1d4-d488013177a7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But “looking at the broader picture”, the ONS adds, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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We’re about to learn how well, or badly, the UK economy fared in November, as the recession looms.

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The Office for National Statistics is due to release its GDP monthly estimate for November at 7am. Economists predict the UK economy shrank by around 0.2% in November, after better-than-expected growth of 0.5% in October.

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A fall in GDP in November wouldn’t officially put the UK into a technical recession – defined as shrinking for two consecutive quarters – but it could signal that one is close.

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UK GDP did fall in the third quarter of 2022, by 0.3%, so a contraction in the October-December quarter would mean a recession (we’ll get Q4 data in a month’s time).

“,”elementId”:”42838cf1-25a0-4ffe-82a3-70170b4c0f19″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Soaring energy prices have hit the economy, weakening consumer spending as the cost of living crisis left consumers with less to spend.

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Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets told clients:

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We expect that GDP contracted again in November.

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Retail sales have provided a good guide to the pattern of activity of late, and they fell by 0.4% m/m in November.

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UK monthly GDP on the cards in the session aheadhttps://t.co/LozYN9BJus

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status/1613782035344097281″,”id”:”1613782035344097281″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”2f223f70-a24d-4425-96e2-a2b3992afb8e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Analysts at investment bank Nomura also predicted a month-on-month contraction in November, saying:

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“We think that GDP is due a fall bearing in mind the weaker surveys and higher inflation, and as such forecast a 0.3 per cent m-o-m drop in November.”

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“,”elementId”:”cb58271e-8ad5-4a52-b96d-c7eed50baaef”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

UK housebuilders have warned this week that demand slowed last autumn, as the turmoil following the mini-budget.

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The agenda

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  • 7am GMT: UK GDP report for November

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  • 7am GMT: UK trade report for November

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  • 9am GMT: Full Year GDP growth report for Germany

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  • 10am GMT: Eurozone trade balance for November

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  • 3pm GMT: University of Michigan index of US consumer sentiment

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Key events

Growth at telecommunications and computer programming companies helped the UK economy to expand, just 0.1%, in November, says ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan.

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Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games, he explains, with England and Wales both playing in Qatar.

“,”elementId”:”923e4098-aadf-44c9-b2dc-298ab3049bdb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But this was “partially offset” by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the pharmaceutical industry (where output can be erratic).

“,”elementId”:”c6e369fb-53b3-4073-90fc-a367ac38fb76″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Strikes also hit the transport and postal sectors, Morgan says, adding:

“,”elementId”:”8ad344c9-1ae2-4014-9505-571dc0448641″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

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“Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank – mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

\n

“,”elementId”:”8181c8c4-a38d-4120-9e0f-f3c24815a863″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Darren Morgan said: (1/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ivYR1sEsgU

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793499484229633″,”id”:”1613793499484229633″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”8e687054-d66f-485b-8331-1eb610692a25″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Darren Morgan continued: (2/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ghX6AbpIYW

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793731680796672″,”id”:”1613793731680796672″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”85b7c301-dab2-49e1-997b-5aebdbfb06ec”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Darren Morgan also said: (3/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/g9dLabtuw8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says:

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“We have a clear plan to halve inflation this year – an insidious hidden tax which has led to hikes in interest rates and mortgage costs, holding back growth here and around the world.

\n

“To support families through this tough patch, we will provide an average of £3,500 support for every household over this year and next – but the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again.”

\n

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The UK’s services sector grew by 0.2% during November, with the men’s World Cup in Qatar providing a boost to pubs and bars, as supporters gathered to watch games.

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But manufacturing continued to struggle, with its output falling by 0.5%.

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The construction sector stagnated.

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GDP grew 0.1% in November with

▪️ services up 0.2%
▪️ manufacturing down 0.5%
▪️ construction flat (0.0%)

➡️ https://t.co/TbV9f82F6z pic.twitter.com/fqg8kNF4c6

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793281237815296″,”id”:”1613793281237815296″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”6635015f-f5ad-4ba0-b566-664677962312″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s the details of how the UK economy performed in November, from the Office for National Statistics:

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    \n

  • The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022, after growth of 0.7% (revised up from a growth 0.6% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contributions came from administrative and support service activities and information and communication.

  • \n

  • Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% (revised up from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution to growth came from food and beverage service activities in a month where the FIFA World Cup started.

  • \n

  • Production output decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a fall of 0.1% (revised down from flat in our previous publication) in October 2022; manufacturing was the main driver of negative production growth in November 2022, partially offset by a positive contribution from mining and quarrying.

  • \n

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after growth of 0.4% (revised down from growth of 0.8% in our previous publication) in October 2022.

  • \n

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Breaking: the UK economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

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The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP rose by 0.1% in November, a slowdown on the 0.5% growth recorded in October.

“,”elementId”:”415016a0-c80b-4f15-a1d4-d488013177a7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But “looking at the broader picture”, the ONS adds, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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We’re about to learn how well, or badly, the UK economy fared in November, as the recession looms.

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The Office for National Statistics is due to release its GDP monthly estimate for November at 7am. Economists predict the UK economy shrank by around 0.2% in November, after better-than-expected growth of 0.5% in October.

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A fall in GDP in November wouldn’t officially put the UK into a technical recession – defined as shrinking for two consecutive quarters – but it could signal that one is close.

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UK GDP did fall in the third quarter of 2022, by 0.3%, so a contraction in the October-December quarter would mean a recession (we’ll get Q4 data in a month’s time).

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Soaring energy prices have hit the economy, weakening consumer spending as the cost of living crisis left consumers with less to spend.

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Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets told clients:

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We expect that GDP contracted again in November.

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Retail sales have provided a good guide to the pattern of activity of late, and they fell by 0.4% m/m in November.

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UK monthly GDP on the cards in the session aheadhttps://t.co/LozYN9BJus

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 13, 2023

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Analysts at investment bank Nomura also predicted a month-on-month contraction in November, saying:

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“We think that GDP is due a fall bearing in mind the weaker surveys and higher inflation, and as such forecast a 0.3 per cent m-o-m drop in November.”

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UK housebuilders have warned this week that demand slowed last autumn, as the turmoil following the mini-budget.

“,”elementId”:”514103ce-4274-472d-b642-7df79467e7e5″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/11/barratt-hiring-freeze-uk-housing-market-slows-down”,”text”:”Barratt brings in hiring freeze as UK housing market slows down”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”a986074e-542d-48da-a5ee-410c53080647″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

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  • 7am GMT: UK GDP report for November

  • \n

  • 7am GMT: UK trade report for November

  • \n

  • 9am GMT: Full Year GDP growth report for Germany

  • \n

  • 10am GMT: Eurozone trade balance for November

  • \n

  • 3pm GMT: University of Michigan index of US consumer sentiment

  • \n

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Filters BETA

Does the unexpected growth in November mean that the UK could have avoided falling into recession at the end of last year?

It all depends on how the economy develops in December.

ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan said Radio 4 today program that if GDP falls by 0.6% or more in December, it would mean the economy would contract in the fourth quarter of 2022.

It would be the second consecutive quarterly contraction – a technical recession.

Morgan said:

If everything else is equal, so no revisions to previous months, for the fourth quarter to be negative, the economy must fall by at least 0.6% [in December].

The ONS will release GDP data for December and for the fourth quarter of 2022 on February 10, Morgan adds.

ONS: Economy grew slightly in November, but strikes hit economy

Growth in telecommunications and computer programming firms helped Britain’s economy grow by just 0.1% in November, ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said.

Pubs and bars have also done well as people have come out to watch World Cup matches, he explains, with England and Wales both playing in Qatar.

But that was “partially offset” by further declines in some manufacturing industries, including pharmaceuticals (where production can be erratic).

Strikes have also hit the transport and postal sectors, Morgan says, adding:

“Over the last three months, however, the economy has shrunk again – mainly due to the impact of the additional bank holiday for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth’s funeral in September.”

Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Darren Morgan said: (1/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ivYR1sEsgU

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Darren Morgan continued: (2/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ghX6AbpIYW

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Darren Morgan also said: (3/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/g9dLabtuw8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Hunt: Reducing inflation will lead to growth in the economy

Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says:

“We have a clear plan to halve inflation this year – an insidious hidden tax that has led to hikes in interest rates and mortgage costs, dampening growth here and around the world.

“To support families through this difficult time, we will provide an average of £3,500 in support to each household over this year and next – but the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so that we get the economy growing again.

UK GDP November 2022
Photography: NSO

UK GDP: the details

The United Kingdom services The sector rose 0.2% in November as the Men’s World Cup in Qatar boosted pubs and bars as fans gathered to watch matches.

But manufacturing continued to struggle, with production falling 0.5%.

The construction sector has stagnated.

GDP grew 0.1% in November with

▪️ services up 0.2%
▪️ manufacturing down 0.5%
▪️ construction flat (0.0%)

➡️ https://t.co/TbV9f82F6z pic.twitter.com/fqg8kNF4c6

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Here are the details of how the UK economy performed in November, from the Office for National Statistics:

  • The service sector increased by 0.2% in November 2022, following growth of 0.7% (revised up from 0.6% growth in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contributions come from administrative and support services and information and communication activities.

  • Output of consumer services increased by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% (revised up from 1.2% growth in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution to growth came from the food and beverage business in a month when the FIFA World Cup began.

  • Production yield decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a decrease of 0.1% (revised downwards compared to our previous publication) in October 2022; manufacturing was the main driver of negative output growth in November 2022, partially offset by a positive contribution from mining.

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after growing 0.4% (revised down from 0.8% growth in our previous release) in October 2022.

Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.3% below its pre-Covid-19 levels in February 2020, according to the ONS.

GDP: UK economy grew 0.1% in November

Breaking: Britain’s economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP rose 0.1% in November, a slowdown from the 0.5% growth recorded in October.

But “looking at the bigger picture”, adds the ONS, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

Here is Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, on UK GDP data due in about 10 minutes…

This morning we receive the latest November GDP figures for the UK economy, which should indicate that the UK economy is already in a modest recession. With the economy contracting in the third quarter, it is very likely that we will see a further contraction in the fourth quarter.

Monthly GDP in October increased by 0.5%, although on a rolling 3-month basis the economy contracted by -0.3%. This rolling 3 month figure is not expected to change in this morning’s November figures with another figure of -0.3%, while the monthly figure is expected to fall -0.2%.

All sectors of the economy are expected to contract in November, with manufacturing and industrial production expected to slow by -0.2%, construction output by -0.3% and the services index by -0.1 %.

This may be why the pound has underperformed in recent days, as markets believe the Bank of England does not have as much leeway to raise rates given the fragility of the British economy, both with the Federal Reserve and with the European Central Bank. considered to have more headroom.

Intro: UK GDP report for November ahead

Hello and welcome to our ongoing coverage of business, financial markets and the global economy.

We are about to learn how well or badly the UK economy fared in November as the recession looms.

The Office for National Statistics is due to release its monthly GDP estimate for November at 7am. Economists predict the UK economy contracted by around 0.2% in November, following better-than-expected growth of 0.5% in October.

A graph showing UK GDP up to October 2022

A fall in GDP in November would not officially put the UK in a technical recession – defined as a contraction for two consecutive quarters – but it could signal that it is close.

UK GDP fell in the third quarter of 2022, by 0.3%, so a contraction in the October-December quarter would mean a recession (we will have the fourth quarter data in a month).

Soaring energy prices have hit the economy, weakening consumer spending as the cost of living crisis has left consumers with less to spend.

Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets tells customers:

We expect GDP to contract again in November.

Retail sales have provided a good indication of the development of activity lately, and they fell by 0.4% m/m in November.

UK monthly GDP on the cards in the session aheadhttps://t.co/LozYN9BJus

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status/1613782035344097281″,”id”:”1613782035344097281″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”466f3c25-d7bb-4247-95a5-777f7d4ccaa7″}}”/>

Analysts at investment bank nomura also predicted a month-on-month contraction in November, saying:

“We believe GDP is due to fall given weaker surveys and higher inflation, and as such we expect a 0.3% drop m/m in November.”

British homebuilders warned this week that demand had slowed last autumn in the wake of the turmoil following the mini budget.

Agenda

  • 7am GMT: UK GDP report for November

  • 7am GMT: UK trade report for November

  • 9am GMT: Annual GDP growth report for Germany

  • 10 a.m. GMT: Eurozone trade balance for November

  • 3pm GMT: University of Michigan US Consumer Mood Index

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