
Carlos Correa has officially returned to Twins Wednesday, ending one of the most bizarre free agency sagas in baseball history.
To this day, the 28-year-old shortstop’s journey is well documented. He first agreed to sign with the giants for 13 years and $350 million, a deal that fell apart after Correa failed a physical due to a right leg injury that was surgically repaired in 2014 (when he was still a minor ). The Dishes stepped in hours later and struck a 12-year, $312 million deal with Correa, only for their doctors to show concern about the same injury. Three weeks later, he was reintroduced at a press conference in Minnesota after signing a six-year, $200 million deal with built-in acquisition and club options that could keep him in the Twin Cities for the next decade. His first foray into free agency last year landed him a three-year, $105.3 million contract with Minnesota, largely because the lockout ended the offseason 21-22 and a delayed its market.
The player the Twins wanted more than any other fell in their laps at a relatively affordable rate, for the second straight offseason. It’s not that hard to imagine a scenario in which they make the playoffs in 2023: of course, given the number of wildcard contenders in other American League divisions, Minnesota’s path to the playoffs is probably limited to winning the AL Central, but it’s not as far as one might expect from a team that finished 78-84.
baseball flyers estimates the amount of value each team has missed due to injury in a given season, based on a player’s projected pre-season WARP (BP version of WAR). Last season, the Twins lost 9.6 WARP to injury, more than any other AL team. The projected WARP takes into account a player’s injury history, so the projected WARP for an injury-prone player, such as Twins center fielder Byron Buxton, is based on his projected number of games played, and not over a full season of 162 games. For example, entering last season, Buxton was projected for 3.3 WARP over 127 games. He ended up playing in just 92 games, or 72.4% of his scheduled games played. Thus, his failed WARP was 0.91, meaning Minnesota’s injury concerns were far more than the oft-injured center back. Give the 2022 Twins another nine wins, and suddenly they’re firmly in the wild card race. If, say, some of those wins came against Cleveland, they could have made a run for the division. That’s not to say Minnesota should have been a playoff team, or the Guardians shouldn’t have been – the point is, the Twins are much closer to contention now, when Correa returns, than they were. they don’t seem so.

The Twins finished third in the AL Central last season behind the White Sox and Guardians.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Injuries, however, are part of the game, and Minnesota just didn’t have the quality depth to cover for their starters when they were injured last year. Luckily for the Twins, there are still plenty of low-cost players available in free agency to improve their bottom roster, fullback, bench and bullpen. Let’s take a look at some of their options.
First, they need to add a right-handed/DH outfielder to face left-handers in a squad with Joey Gallo, who signed a one-year, $11 million contract earlier this offseason. The poster boy for all three real results, Gallo is coming off his worst season yet, mostly because of the way he distributed those results. His strikeout and home run rates, 39.8% and 4.6%, respectively, were the worst of his full-season career. His 13.7% walk rate was his second-lowest mark for a full season. Thing is, as horrible as Gallo played in 2022, he was much better against right-handers: In fact, based on wRC+, the FanGraphs overall offensive metric, Gallo was exactly league average.
Gallo Splits 2022
Oblique line | Write-off rate | Weighted cycles created More | |
---|---|---|---|
vs LHP |
.110/.217/.219 |
48.2K% |
29 CMR+ |
vs HPR |
.173/.297/.394 |
37.6K% |
100 wRC+ |
Globally |
.160/.280/.357 |
39.8K% |
85 wRC+ |
Against lefties, Gallo was 71% worse than the league average last season. He should just never come to bat when a southpaw throws. Against right-handers he will still strike a frustrating number of times, but at least he can strike for some power, manage goals well and play good defense.
The best player available to fill that squad role is Andrew McCutchen, who has reportedly attracted interest from the Mets, Rays and Dodgers. The former MVP is no longer an everyday outfielder, but he’s still a productive major league hitter (especially against lefties), and the Twins should pursue him as well. Over the past four seasons, McCutchen has an OPS of .894 against left-handers, compared to .698 against right-handers.
At this point in his career, McCutchen should be affordably priced. Spotrac projects its market value at one year, $7.6 million. Currently, the twins have an estimated payroll of $162.7 million, according to Roster Resource. So even if — motivated after losing Correa — Steve Cohen and the Mets make a run on the veteran outfielder and bump his price up a bit, Minnesota still has plenty of room before hitting the first tax threshold. While that won’t happen, it would be hilarious to see the Mets and Twins engage in a bidding war over a 36-year-old who is best suited to be a platoon corner fielder and DH.
If the Twins miss McCutchen, they should go after former Braves outfielder Adam Duvall, who struggled against lefties (129 wRC+) despite struggling last season. Tommy Pham is also available. He’s coming off a bad year (89 wRC+) in which he was traded from the Padres to the Red Sox, but he’s been pretty reliable throughout his career (116 wRC+), especially against lefties (132 wRC+) .
Even if Minnesota signs McCutchen, it would still be a good idea to sign Pham, who at worst is a quality fourth outfielder who could earn a day-to-day role if Gallo struggles or someone gets injured. He could also form a squad with DH Nick Gordon or right fielder Max Kepler, both left-handed hitters who are much better against right-handers. Pham’s market value is two years, $16.7 million, according to Spotrac.
So if the Twins got McCutchen and Pham at market value, their luxury tax payroll would jump to around $179 million, leaving them with $54 million to spend on the pitch. Their rotation – Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober – is solid, although they need an arm or two to account for the injuries that are sure to come at some point in the game. the season. Maeda has missed all of the past year recovering from Tommy John’s surgery, while Ober and Gray have each made several trips to IL. Three starters to consider: Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke and Michael Pineda. The latter might be the best fit of the trio; Pineda spent 86 days on the IL last year with the Tigers and struggled on the mound, but before that he had three good seasons with the Twins, combining for a 22-13 record with an ERA of 3.80 over 53 games.
Minnesota’s bullpen is also in pretty good shape, but like the rotation, it could use an arm or two more. Left-handers Matt Moore and Andrew Chafin and right-handers David Phelps and Michael Fulmer would all make good additions.
For the purposes of this exercise, let’s say the Twins sign McCutchen, Pham, Pineda and Chafin. Here’s what their projected lineups would look like:
vs LHP
- Luis Arraez, 1B
- Carlos Correa, SS
- Byron Buxton, CF
- Jose Miranda, BC
- Andrew McCutchen, DH
- Tommy Pham, LF
- Jorge Polanco, 2B
- Max Kepler, RF
- Christian Vazquez, C.
vs HPR
- Luis Arraez, 1B
- Carlos Correa, SS
- Byron Buxton, CF
- Jorge Polanco, 2B
- Max Kepler, RF
- Jose Miranda, 3B
- Joey Gallo, LF
- Christian Vazquez, C.
- Nick Gordon, DH
Is this team a candidate for the World Series? Probably not, but it looks like a roster that can make the playoffs, as long as it stays relatively healthy.
The Twins have Correa, arguably the best shortstop in baseball, back in their roster. Now is the time for them to do more.