The best bets of the Super Wild Card weekend, and is Steph Curry back for the Warriors yet?

The best bets of the Super Wild Card weekend, and is Steph Curry back for the Warriors yet?

The best bets of the Super Wild Card weekend, and is Steph Curry back for the Warriors yet?

It’s the Friday before the NFL Playoffs start, and I’m not here to waste your time. This afternoon newsletter is jam-packed with NFL picks to get you through the weekend. I’ve also included two picks for tonight and a few other football picks.

You earned them. I hope they are all winners, like these stories.

Let’s dive into it.

All Eastern times and odds via Caesars Sportsbook


πŸ”₯ The hot ticket

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Warriors at Spurs, 7:30 p.m. | Television: ESPN

Latest odds:

San Antonio Spurs +8.5

  • Key trend: Golden State is 4-15 ATS on the road, and 1-7 ATS as a road favorite this season.
  • The pick: Spurs +9 (-110)

Do you think Spurs playing a nationally televised game will lead to a better performance? I tell myself it’s okay. And even if not, there is still too much value on Spurs in this game. This game will be played at the Alamodome as part of San Antonio’s 50th anniversary as an NBA franchise. I don’t know how much of an impact this will have on San Antonio’s home court advantage.but honestly, I’m not sure how big of an advantage these Spurs are getting at home anyway.

What interests me the most is what the Warriors will look like. Stephen Curry returned from his shoulder injury in Golden State’s 125-113 loss to the Suns on Tuesday night. He looked like what you would expect for a player who had missed so much time: rusty. He scored 24 points but shot only 36.3% from the field. As the comeback gets attention, after a long layoff, you sometimes see players struggling more in the second game, because they don’t have their legs under them yet, and there’s no the same adrenaline rush of “The Return”. “

Besides, it’s not like this Warriors team has been a juggernaut. They’ve lost three in a row and are just 20-21 this season. That includes a dismal 3-16 mark on the road. ATS, they’re just 4-15 ATS on the road and 1-7 ATS when favored on the road, failing to cover an average of 7.9 points per game.

Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: Unlike last night (when I was right and it was wrong), the screening model and I are best friends here.


πŸ’° Choices

USATSI

πŸ€ College Basketball

Michigan State at Illinois, 9 p.m. | TV: FS1

Latest odds:

Michigan State Spartans +6.5

The pick: Michigan State +6.5 (-110) — If you think being horribly wrong about last night’s Ohio State/Minnesota game would keep me from betting on Big Ten basketball again tonight, well, you were almost right. Seriously, I was so shaken by Minnesota’s upset win over Ohio State as a 15-point dog that I was hesitant to include this one tonight, but I thought better.

It’s a tough game for Illinois, even though the Illini have bounced back from poor play in their last two games. Although they are solid defensively, they get cooked from three when they lose. It’s the defense’s only weak point this season, and it’s one that Michigan State can exploit. The Spartans have shot 37.8 percent from three this season, which ranks them 31st nationally. They don’t shoot them often, but with their trouble scoring on the inside and Illinois’ ability to defend on the inside, the Spartans are going to change their approach a bit tonight. I don’t know if it will be enough to win, but it should make things uncomfortable for the home team.



🏈 NFL Playoffs

Chargers at Jaguars, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | Television: NBC

Latest odds:

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5

Pick: Jaguars +1.5 (-110) — Pardon. I can’t bet the Los Angeles Chargers are road favorites in an NFL playoff game, even against a Jacksonville team I don’t hold in high regard.

Yes, the Chargers are 7-2 ATS on the road this season, including 3-1 as a road favorite, but this is one of those times when looking deeper into the trend tells a different story. The Chargers were favored on the road against Houston, Cleveland (before Deshaun Watson returned), Atlanta and Arizona. He covered them all except the game against Arizona, where he won but not enough.

I don’t like Jacksonville very much, but the Jaguars are better than those teams, and they played better in the second half of the season. They have won five times in a row. The competition hasn’t always been the fiercest, but it hasn’t been a cakewalk either. Also, remember earlier this season when Jacksonville went to Los Angeles and beat the Chargers 38-10? We probably won’t see a similar margin of victory this weekend, but we could easily see another victory in Jacksonville.

Dolphins at Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m. | Television: CBS

Latest odds:

Buffalo Notes -13.5

The choice: Invoices -13.5 (-110) — Don’t think about it too much. The Bills are one of the best teams in the league, one of the Super Bowl favorites, and can have this whole “doom team” working for them. Miami is a team that has lost five straight before claiming an 11-6 win over the Jets last week to keep its tenuous hold on a playoff berth.

The Dolphins will not have Tua Tagovailoa in this game. Skylar Thompson will start. Miami could also do without Raheem Mostert. Having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at receiver will still make Miami dangerous, but the gap between the two quarterbacks in this game is as wide as the average January temperatures in those two cities. The choice here is Buffalo -13.5, but I’ll explore a few alternative lines as well. Buffalo could be Georgia’s TCU in Miami here.

⚽ Soccer

Manchester United v Manchester City, Saturday, 7:30 a.m. | Television: United States
The choice: more than 2.5 (-145) —
Well, it’s a strange situation. Every time I’ve featured a pick involving Manchester United in this newsletter, there’s been a crisis. This current iteration of Manchester United, however, is not. In fact, it’s very good. United have won eight games in a row and 15 of their last 18, with the only defeat being a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa. Of course, if we expand the sample size to 19 matches, that’s two defeats, and the second defeat was a 6-3 against Manchester City on October 2.

I don’t think City will deliver the same kind of shots this weekend, however, I think the high scoring affair we saw in this game was no fluke, and we should score more goals this weekend. I also don’t hate the idea of ​​United winning because City have been in kind of a funk (for City) lately, especially defensively where they concede more often than usual, but that’s why the over is so appealing.

Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal, Sunday, 11.30am | TV: Peacock
The choice: Less than 2.5 (+100) —
I think Tottenham are coming out of their defensive funk. I don’t have a lot of supporting data, but from what I’ve seen, there’s reason to be optimistic. Everything Antonio Conte’s teams do is built on the foundation of defense first. In this aspect, Tottenham were lost before the World Cup break, and they still struggled to regain it in the first matches that followed. However, Tottenham shut down Crystal Palace 4-0 last week, but more than the four goals they scored, the lack of chances conceded stood out. This week’s 1-0 win over Portsmouth in the FA Cup was unimpressive, but the result seemed intentional. I’m not putting Conte out to say that all he wanted to do was win 1-0, and the rest of the game was used as a defensive training exercise.

And that’s the one the team could use with Arsenal this weekend because even without Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal have been a powerful team. A powerful side that Newcastle have been a little restless about, and I won’t be shocked to see Tottenham adopt some of the same ‘tactics’ that Newcastle used in this game to annoy Mikel Arteta and Arsenal. We are likely to see more red cards than goals in this match.

πŸ”’ SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Josh Nagel is 21-8 in his last 29 ATS picks involving the Seahawks, and he has one game available for Saturday afternoon’s Wild Card showdown.

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