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They are the bottom seed and play on the road but, due to their opponents’ own inconsistencies this season, the Dallas Cowboys will be the betting favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC wild-card round game of Monday evening.
The 12 wins the Cowboys racked up during the regular season won’t mean much with quarterback Tom Brady, undefeated in seven games against Dallas, on the other side. That won’t make things any easier for a team that just had its worst offensive performance of the season against the Washington Commanders.
Here are four things that need to happen for the Cowboys to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore find the rhythm
For the Cowboys to overtake the Buccaneers, Prescott will have to be much better than the tape he put out eight days earlier.
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The 37.8% completion percentage was the worst of his career. He threw interceptions in seven straight games and finished the regular season tied with Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills for the league lead. On Sunday, his misses weren’t close and his readings felt behind.
Prescott and the Cowboys opened each of at least two seasons against the Buccaneers, both losses. The first was a 31-29 home run in which Prescott threw 58 times (42 completions) for 403 yards and three touchdowns. In 2022, Dallas couldn’t even find the end zone and lost, 19-3.
Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will have to find a way to get Prescott in the passing game and build confidence early on. Game action will help, but it would require establishing the run, which brings us to point #2.
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The racing game gets groovy
The Cowboys ran the ball seven times on First Down against Washington and were limited to 10 total yards. Neither Ezekiel Elliott (eight carries, 10 yards) nor Tony Pollard (seven attempts, 19 yards) could find much room to run. The complete lack of production on the first try, Moore said, made it difficult to sustain workouts.
Dallas had 10 three-outs with Prescott from the field (12 total) and went 4 for 18 on third down (22%). The Cowboys finished the season fifth in third down conversion percentage (45.5%) and one of the main reasons is the hit ball on first downs.
The health of the offensive line will obviously impact the performance of the rushing offense, and the good news is that center Tyler Biadasz should return for the playoffs. But the absence of tackle Terence Steele will make things more difficult against an average Buccaneers defense.
Special teams hunt the wrong game
The mistakes of the special teams in what turned out to be a meaningless Week 18 game can be glossed over. However, special teams mistakes in the playoffs will cost people jobs.
The transgressions against Washington were noticeable. Bryan Anger mishandled a snap and couldn’t get the punt out, flipping the ball inside the red zone. Returner KaVontae Turpin signaled a good catch but forgot the most important part – catching the ball – and again put Washington in a prime position on the court. Kicker Brett Maher missed an extra point. Turpin returned a punt he should have let roll into the end zone.
Against a team with Tom Brady calling signals, special teams mishaps can spell doom.
Breaking the Curse of Tom Brady
It’s simple. Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys, with the last two wins wearing a Buccaneers uniform. This will be Dallas’ first time facing Brady in the playoffs.
Follow Chris Bumbaca on Twitter @BOOMbaca.
